Winter Itch & Season Forecast

March is around the corner and we’re still in the heart of the New England winter. If you’re someone who likes to be prepared or tinker, you’re probably taking stock of offseason projects. Maybe some reels and rods need TLC: sticky anti-reverse, worn guides, or simply spooling up. Perhaps your vessel is in need of some improvements, whether that’s a kayak, a center console or a fishing truck. Or maybe you’re a true hardcore angler who never stopped, and have been hitting the sweetwater for trout, or the big brackish rivers for winter bass. In either case, change is coming: cherry blossoms will be blooming in less than two months, and striped bass will be chewing long before then.

What will the 2024 season bring? Last year the bite started early, and fish were very isolated in the western sound throughout the year (spring and fall). Big schools of bunker sure didn’t stick around long. I’d get that gear ready sooner rather than later if you don’t want to get caught with your pants down… But first let’s compare the weather this year vs. last.

Water temps have plummeted since mid January and stayed around the 38 degree mark since mid Jan. This is already quite a bit different than 2023 where temps stayed right in the 40-42 mark the whole time range aside from one dramatic drop around February 5th. We’re off to a lot more ‘normal’, colder start than 2023. I think this is a good thing. This is all worth nothing if the next few month’s water temp trends change dramatically, and we’re already seeing a big warm up this week. Snowfall levels will also have a major effect, since so much of the sound is affected by freshwater runoff where temps and salinity will vary based on snowmelt. It’s been a light snowfall year up north in the Green Mountains/Adirondacks/White mountains which generates much of our runoff via the CT, Hudson, and Housatonic rivers.

Now, water temps probably predict when the bite will start and end, but how they affect bait presence and migrations I can’t say for sure. The isolated bite of 2023 I mentioned, cause unknown. One recurring thought I have is whether it’s caused by communication between anglers, or if it’s simply a fish trend. Meaning: is everyone catching fish in the same vicinity because everyone’s sharing info and trends exacerbate, or are the majority of the fish truly stacked up in that one vicinity? Who knows.

The albies this season stayed pretty far east rarely moving west of Bridgeport, and it seemed they got pickier and pickier as they went west. The throngs of boats didn’t help. The fall bite had bass behaving in our local smaller rivers like they do typically in the big ones (housy, CT river). They staged up at the mouths and far upriver into December, acting like holdovers on their way to winter grounds. Big blues followed them farther upriver than is typical in the fall. The open water bite in the fall didn’t really exist so much, and same goes for the typical fall bunker bite. Lack of herring and adult bunker is the cause I suppose. Peanuts tight to shore kept the bite going, however.

We have seen a minor change in striped bass regulations with a 28-31 sized slot as opposed to the 28-36 last year, further tightening the harvest. This is controversial and everyone has a different opinion, if you want to go in depth I suggest reading the ASGA media outlets. https://saltwaterguidesassociation.com/ I promote C&R, keeping fight and photo time to a minimum. That said, I see nothing wrong with harvesting a few fish a season. Particular those that are unfortunately having trouble with revival or hooked in difficult spots. Studies show a lot of the fish we are releasing unfortunately do not survive anyway.